[Hamden, CT] The latest poll from Quinnipiac University shows that President Obama has lost his lead over Mitt Romney in Florida.

According to the Q-Poll conducted May 15 – 21 that surveyed 1,722 registered voters, former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney holds a 6% percent lead over President Obama (47% to 41%).

The numbers are in stark contrast to the last poll released May 3 (and reported by Sunshine Slate) which showed the two presidential hopefuls in a dead heat. On March 28, Obama was on top 49% to 42%.

“Gov. Mitt Romney has slipped into the lead in Florida and that standing is confirmed by his much better numbers than the president when voters are asked whether they view the candidates favorably or unfavorably,” said Peter A. Brown of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

“They view Romney favorably 44%-35%, while Obama gets a negative 45%-50% favorability,” he said.

The President’s recent public admission that he now personally supports same-sex marriage rights may not have as much of an effect – at least in Florida – as had been the common wisdom. The poll showed that 63% of voters say that it will affect their vote.

The percentage of voters who say that his stance on gay marriage makes it less likely that they will vote for Obama is 25%.

“While the issue of same-sex marriage looks like it affects only one-third of Florida voters, we know from experience what a few votes can mean in the Sunshine State,” said Brown.

Curiously, the poll also found that if U.S. Senator from Florida Marco Rubio was added to the GOP ticket, it wouldn’t make that much of a difference to the state’s voters, only adding 2% to bring Romney to 49% over Obama’s 41%.

Photo: Obama For America

New poll: President Obama is trailing Mitt Romney in Florida

Independents would back a Romney-Rubio ticket 46%-37% over Obama-Biden.

A slim majority (52%-44%) of registered Florida voters say that Obama does not deserve a second term in the Oval Office. The numbers are the same when it comes to his job approval.

“The overall picture in Florida is positive for Romney, who is ahead 50%-37% among men, while women are divided 44%-45%,” said Brown. “And the president is getting just 33% of white votes, compared to 85% of black votes and 42% of Hispanic votes.”

It is no surprise that Romney is winning over Republicans, but the numbers are staggering (91% for versus 3% against) when you consider the doubt that was out there during the heat of the primary. Guess both Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich were wrong.

Romney is also doing well with independents: 44%-36%.

The only area where Romney is losing badly is in the area of likeability. Obama gets 76%-21% while Romney scored 58%-30%. The numbers are virtually the same if you just look at independent voters.

Romney was also viewed as the candidate better suited to handle the economy, 50%-40%.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

By: Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate

Lead image: Fran Ruchalski/Sunshine Slate Images

Mitt Romney

[Hamden, CT] Neither of the remaining two Republican contenders for the nomination is currently challenging President Obama in Florida, according to the latest Florida poll.

Yes, I said two – Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul are mere sideshow distractions from what is really going on.

And what is really going on is that the latest Quinnipiac University Florida poll shows Obama having a comfortable lead over both former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney (49% to 42%) and former U.S. Sen. from Pennsylvania Rick Santorum (50% to 37%).

The poll also included Ohio and Pennsylvania – Santorum’s home turf – both considered to be crucial swing states. And things – somewhat surprisingly – don’t get any better for the “only true conservative left in this race” (or something like that) at home. Or in Ohio. Did I mention Florida?

“President Barack Obama is on a roll in the key swing states. If the election were today, he would carry at least two states. And if history repeats itself, that means he would be re- elected,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

“But the election is not today. It is seven months away. Two months ago President Obama and Gov. Mitt Romney were in a statistical tie in Ohio and Florida,” Brown added.

The big story is Florida women, who favor Obama big time over Romney or Santorum. Actually, in all three key states, women back the President over Romney or Santorum by 6% to 19%. Men are split right down the middle.

Photo: Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate Images

Romney is losing ground to Obama in Florida poll

For Romney, he still struggles with is favorables, although he still has undecideds to woo. In the Sunshine State, he polled at 41% “favorable,” 36% “unfavorable” and 19% “haven’t heard enough.”

Santorum’s numbers are much worse, although he has much more room to grow: 28% “favorable,” 39% “unfavorable” and 30% “haven’t heard enough.”

Compared to Obama – 51% “favorable,” 44% “unfavorable” and 2% “haven’t heard enough” – both men have a long way to goo in this department. As for Obama’s job approval ratings, 50% of Florida voters say he deserves to be re-elected.

“The biggest reason for the president’s improving prospects probably is the economy. Roughly 6-in-10 voters in all three states think the economy is recovering. Moreover, voters blame the oil companies and oil-producing countries for the rise in gasoline prices and only about one in six voters blame them on President Obama,” says Brown.

Let’s break down the oil price blame game: oil companies are most to blame (32%), oil-producing countries are to blame (23%); Obama is to blame (18%), supply and demand is to blame (16%). Florida voters also oppose (54%-36%) releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to curb rising gas prices.

All of that helps Obama, who is aggressively firing back at the GOP on the oil issue, going forward.

Photo: Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate Images

A recent Florida poll shows that Rick Santorum has no chance in the state

In terms of issues, this is how important Florida voters see a candidate’s positions on them: economy (90%), unemployment (81%), 2010 health care law (78%), federal budget deficit (76%), war in Afghanistan (67%), gas prices (66%), immigration (55%), women’s reproductive health issues (48%),
and abortion/gay marriage (39%).

However, voters say that Romney would do a better job versus Obama when it comes to handling the economy 48% to 45%. Santorum? Obama crushes him.

Oh, and how did Gov. Rick Scott do in the polling? Florida voters still disapprove of the job he is doing (52%-36%), which, as the poll summary points out, continues his “year-long streak of negative ratings.”

From March 20 – 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,228 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent; Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and nationwide as a public service and for research. For individual statewide crosstabs and trends visit – http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2881.xml or call (203) 582-5201.

By: Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate

Lead photo: Barack Obama stopped in Terre Haute, IN, on Sept 6, 2008. He talked to Wabash Valley voters at the fairgrounds (photo: BeckyF)

Florida poll

[Tallahassee, FL] Thought you were done with former House Speaker and wannabe president Newt Gingrich after he got trounced in Florida’s Republican primary? Think again hot shot. There are three big Newt stories brewing, with the – surprise! – Sunshine State at the center of two of them.

First up: Gingrich is asking the Republican Party of Florida (RPOF) to enforce its rules regarding the winner-take-all status of Florida’s 50 delegates, of which former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney handsomely pocketed all.

Apparently, when the Republican National Committee (RNC) met last year, there was a new rule added that if any state does what Florida did – move up their primary date up to take place before Feb. 1 – that the “bad” state’s delegates be allocated according to percentage of votes.

That would mean that Gingrich could be eligible to actually make a game of it when it comes to the total number of delegates in possession. Could be, if party officials change their mind. You know, like the recount in Iowa (and we know all about recounts, don’t we).

Where it stands now: Mitt Romney has 81 delegates to Newt Gingrich‘s 27. If Florida were to follow the rules (as Gingrich sees them): Romney 54,  Gingrich 43. It looks much more palatable to a possible donor, don’t you think? Also, Newt’s feelings wouldn’t be quite so hurt.

Save your tears, Mr. former Speaker. RPOF Chairman Lenny Curry isn’t playing any of your reindeer games.

Photo: RPOF

RPOF Chairman Lenny Curry

“Florida was winner take all before Election Day, we were winner take all on Election Day, we will remain winner take all,” said Curry via a Feb. 2 press release.

“On September 23, 2011, RPOF’s Executive Board – 38 people including members from around the state, members who serve on the RNC, and members who are affiliated with different campaigns – unanimously passed RPOF Rule 10,” said Curry.

Oooohhhh … Rule 10.

“Rule 10 determined Florida would be winner take all if the primary date was moved by statute and Florida was penalized by RNC for the move. All campaigns and the RNC have known since then that Florida was winner take all,” added Curry, somewhat defiantly.

Even the guy in charge of Gingrich’s campaign in Florida admitted that the ploy a last-ditch effort of a sore loser. Newt 2012 Florida Chairman Bill McCollum told Fox News that if they had won, none of this would be an issue.

“It is a shame when the loser of a contest agrees to the rules before, then cries foul after losing,” zinged Curry.

But with a total of 1,144 delegates necessary to win the nomination, there is still a long way to go, and theoretically Romney will continue to create distance between the two with each successive caucus and primary victory. So it is not that big of a deal.

Unless you are the guy making fundraising calls on behalf of Newt 2012, that is.

Photo: Lance Turner/latuphoto.com/Sunshine Slate Images

Newt Gingrich points out that he’s number one in the Florida … in assault cases

OH THERE’S MORE

Newt Gingrich and his campaign are being sued for assault and battery by an Orlando-area man who claims that Newt’s security team first, physically intimidated him, then fractured his toe and then proceeded to antagonize him about it.

The security guy smashed his foot “like he was stomping out a cigarette,” says Edward Dillard of Windermere.

Dillard claims his foot was fractured by the security team after voting Tuesday in the Orlando suburb of Windermere.

And all of this unnecessary brutality because he was wearing the wrong shirt. What did the oh-so-offensive shirt say? Ron Paul 2012.

Dillard seeks $75,000 in damages.

OH THERE’S MORE TOO

Daaaant, dant-dant-dant, dant-dant-dant, dant-dant-daaaant

Rising up, back on the street
Did my time, took my chances
Went the distance, now I’m back on my feet
Just a man and his will to survive

Newt Gingrich is the first person who comes to mind when you hear those lyrics and jam that tune, right? Not at all.

That’s probably why the rock band Survivor is suing Newt Gingrich and his campaign to make him stop using their iconic song “Eye of the Tiger” at campaign appearances.

The anthemic classic rock staple, which was used to great effect in the landmark film Rocky III starring Sylvester Stallone, was a huge hit and still has a great emotional impact on audiences. That’s why people pay big bucks to use the track to “pump up the volume” on their ad campaigns.

Apparently, Survivor hasn’t gotten any checks from Newt, who is no Rocky Balboa.

In a suit filed in a Chicago federal court, songwriter Frankie “Eye of the Tiger” Sullivan alleges that Gingrich violated copyright law by blasting the 1982 tune at stump stops. Similarly, Michele Bachmann was legally reprimanded for her use of Tom Petty’s “American Girl.”

Patsy Cline’s estate had no problem with Bachmann using “Crazy,” however.

By: Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate

Lead image: Lance Turner/latuphoto.com/Sunshine Slate Images

Newt Gingrich

[Florida] With slightly more than 50% of the precincts reporting in, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has won the Florida primary, making him the hands-down frontrunner for the Republican nomination for President of the United States, according to The Washington Post.

“To the people in this room and to the people all over Florida, thank you tonight for this great victory,” Romney told supporters.

The Florida primary results numbers, although not yet final, are keeping with poll predictions:

Mitt Romney 47%

Newt Gingrich 31%

Rick Santorum 13%

Ron Paul 7%

By: Adam Rousso/Sunshine Slate

Image: Fran Ruchalski/Sunshine Slate Images

Related reading:

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Florida primary results

[Tallahassee, FL] During tonight’s pre-taped interview with FOX Business Network (FBN), Florida Gov. Rick Scott had a verbal dose of reality for fellow Republican Newt Gingrich – the former Speaker of the House – and his bid for the presidency.

In the interview set to appear tonight at 10 p.m. EST on FBN’s Follow the Money, Scott talks openly with host Eric Bolling about tomorrow’s Florida Republican primary.

Bottom line: Scott says he thinks it will be “hard on Newt” to continue in the presidential race “if he doesn’t win Florida.”

As for former Gov. of Massachusetts Mitt Romney, Scott continued to cheer lead the fellow mega-millionaire businessman, but not endorse.

When Scott is asked about the role the Florida primary plays in determining the Republican presidential nominee, the governor almost beamed with pride over the Sunshine State’s kingmaker status.

“It looks like Florida is going to choose,” says Scott of tomorrow’s Republican primary. “It’s going to be tough, I think it will be hard on Newt, if he doesn’t win Florida, to go forward, because Governor Romney has a good campaign going from the standpoint of good organization and he’s raised a lot of money.”

Scott was also asked whether he thinks Gingrich and Romney are the clear frontrunners.

“Right now, it looks like Mitt Romney has got the lead … The latest polls show him up,” says Scott, an astute observer of polls (he must read Sunshine Slate).

He did take old Mitt to task for some of the content in his ads, whether campaign-grown or SuperPAC manned.

“I think [Romney's] gotten his message out better in Florida. I hope it has nothing to do with the negative ads,” worries Scott, whose own campaign ads were more scare tactic than “the other person is bad.”

“But somebody, one of these two, is going to go out there and really sell that they’ve got a better jobs plan than the other one,” adds Scott. “That’s who I think is going to win tomorrow.”

According to Scott during another recent interview, none of the candidates have focused enough on jobs.

Bolling does try to get Scott to say if he’s leaning toward Romney, which it certainly appears he is.

“I’m not leaning,” says Scott.

There you have it, he’s not leaning … but rooting, perhaps?

By: Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate

Image: www.rickscottforflorida.com

Republican primary

[Tampa, FL] On Monday, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich will criss-cross the state in search of support ahead of Tuesday’s Republican primary.

While Gingrich’s appearances have brought out waves of supporters and type of fervor usually reserved for rock stars, a Miami Herald/Tampa Bay Times/El Nuevo poll shows him to be 11 points behind former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

That echoes an NBC News/Marist poll that has Mitt Romney topping Newt Gingrich 42% to 27%. Clearly the candidate has his work cut out for him.

Nonplussed, Gingrich went on the attack over the weekend, hitting the Sunday news-talk circuit to paint Romney as a “pro-abortion, pro-gun control, pro-tax increase moderate from Massachusetts.”

The new and improved Romney shot back with equal venom.

“Mr. Speaker … Your problem in Florida is that you worked for Freddie Mac at a time that Freddie Mac was not doing the right thing for the American people,” scorched Romney. “And that you were selling influence in Washington at a time when we needed people to stand up for the truth in Washington.”

Appearing with Gingrich at all stops will be Michael Reagan, President Ronald Reagan’s eldest son. Gingrich has used Reagan references to appeal to fans of the former president, claiming that he is the nearest thing to the Gipper out of the four remaining presidential hopefuls.

Newt Gingrich‘s schedule on Monday (all times EST):

By: Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate

Newt Gingrich

[Washington, D.C.] This week, with Florida the center of attention thanks to Tuesday’s Republican primary, Marco Rubio – the U.S. Senator from the Sunshine State by way of Miami – found himself back in Washington, D.C., joining the rest of his fellow senators to start the second session of the 112th Congress.

They are part of the least-popular Congress in history, mind you.

Rubio wasted no time, he hit the ground running, raising a ruckus over the national debt and hammering Senate Democrats for failing to pass a budget for over 1,000 days. He also blasted the president for “counterproductive” tax measures hours before Obama delivered his State of the Union Address.

It’s the kind of talk that has gained Rubio a following across the red parts of the country – that and his Hispanic heritage and made-for-the-History Channel back story. It is no wonder the charismatic son of Cuban immigrants is being bandied about as a possible vice presidential candidate to run alongside Newt Gingrich or Mitt Romney.

But Rubio has always denied that there is interest in joining a ticket and has gone out of his way to keep the kingmaker wolves at bay (at least until after Florida’s contentious Republican primary).

In a recent interview with USA Today, Rubio was singing the same tune:

Q: Speaking of vice president, has any campaign vetted you for the job?

A: Not even talked to me about it… Look guys, I get all that. But we’re not really focused on that. It’s not something we’ve talked about with anybody.

Here’s the bottom line: I want to do everything I can to ensure that Barack Obama doesn’t get a second term. Nothing personal. I think the man is a good father (and) a good husband. I believe he loves his country. But I think he is a believer in a flawed ideology and I think his policies reflect it. And I want to see him defeated and I want to do anything I can and almost everything I can to help our nominee win, but I don’t believe that’s going to be in the role of vice president.

Photo: Sen. Marco Rubio's Office

Sen. Marco Rubio (shown visiting Libya) is staying out of the Republican primary

Helping his chances with either of the Republican primary frontrunners – if he does eventually change his mind, that is – is the fact that he refuses to endorse anyone before Tuesday’s primary. That’s just smart politics any way you slice it.

Plus, both Gingrich and Romney helped him win his Senate seat via endorsements and stumping, so how could he choose between the two?

“I’m not going to referee or somehow (be an) arbiter of Florida,” Rubio was quoted as saying. “Voters don’t need me in that role.”

Staff Mobile Office Hours

Rubio’s staff will be hosting Mobile Office Hours to meet with constituents and assist them with federal issues in their own communities.

All times listed below are local:

Tuesday, Feb. 14, 2012

Lake County
10:00 a.m.-12:00 p.m.
W.T. Bland Public Library
1995 North Donnelly Street
Mount Dora, FL 32757

Sumter County
2:00 p.m.-5:00 p.m.
Villages Public Library at Belvedere
325 Belvedere Boulevard
The Villages, FL 32162

Thursday, Feb. 16, 2012

Miami-Dade County
9:30 a.m. – 2:00 p.m.
Stephen P. Clark Center
111 NW 1st Street
Miami, FL 33128

Putnam County
3:30 p.m.-5:30 p.m.
Palatka Public Library
601 College Road
Palatka, FL 32177

Tuesday, Feb. 21, 2012

Brevard County
1:00 p.m.-4:00 p.m.
Melbourne Public Library
540 E. Fee Ave
Melbourne, FL 32901

By: Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate

Image: Sen. Marco Rubio’s website

Republican primary

[Hamden, CT] A shocking swing in the back-and-forth battle for a victory in the Florida Republican primary: Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has jumped to a nine-point lead over former House Speaker Newt Gingrich in the latest Quinnipiac poll, released today.

And they were at a virtual dead heat just two days ago. What gives?

Apparently, men are making the difference. Men back Romney 36%–29%, a dramatic shift from Quinnipiac’s poll released Jan. 25. In that survey, men were favoring Gingrich 37%–33%. The poll also reveals that Romney continues to do much better with women voters.

“Speaker Newt Gingrich’s momentum from his South Carolina victory appears to have stalled and Gov. Mitt Romney seems to be pulling away in Florida,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

“Romney also has a better favorability rating from likely primary voters, which supports his lead in the horse race. Of course, with four days before Election Day, there is time for another reversal. Three in 10 voters say they might change their mind,” adds Brown.

And the poll was conducted before last night’s Romneyfest.

The numbers are even more dire for Gingrich when it comes to favorability, always his Achilles heal. Romney rocks a 61%–28% rating from likely primary voters while Newt is at 50%–38%. Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum actually beats Gingrich in this department, scoring a 53%–19% favorable.

Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul continues to poll negatively when it comes to favorability.

Overall, Paul has 14% of likely primary voters today and Santorum sits at 12%. Only 6% are undecided, 32% say they might “change their mind” by Tuesday’s election.

It is just four fun-filled days until Florida’s Republican primary, the first “big-state” contest in the nation. And it looking more and more like Romney’s got it in the bag.

From Jan. 24–26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 580 Republican likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.1%. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research.

By: Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate

Image: Fran Ruchalski/Sunshine Slate Images

Republican primary

[Jacksonville, FL] In the highly anticipated Republican debate between the four remaining presidential hopefuls held Thursday night in Jacksonville, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney stopped playing Mr. Nice Guy. And he will probably win Florida as a result.

“The idea I’m anti-immigrant is repulsive,” said Romney, taking a page out of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich‘s playbook and shoving it in his face. “That’s inexcusable. Mr. Speaker, I’m not anti-immigrant. My father was born in Mexico.”

The debate, hosted by CNN and held on the campus of the University of North Florida, turned into the Mitt Romney show, as the former Wall Street wizard took heat from all sides, brushing of all comers with a fire heretofore unseen from the unapologetic mega-millionaire.

With pre-debate polls showing Gingrich and Romney at a dead heat, Romney had to come out with all guns blazing and show like primary voters that he was tough enough to handle Gingrich – let alone President Obama – in a debate setting.

By and large, the strategy worked, toughening up the image of Romney, who had been coasting along until Gingrich won South Carolina and surged in the polls. He will likely keep his lead in Florida going into Tuesday’s Florida primary vote (the post-debate swell seems to be already headed in that direction).

Photo: Fran Ruchalski/Sunshine Slate Images

Mitt Romney showed more fight and confidence during the Republican debate

The immigration issue – a divisive one for the GOP frontrunners – was front and center to start, before moderator Wolf Blitzer worked his way through personal investments and mini-scandals involving mortgage behemoth Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac. Both Gingrich and Romney lobbed bombs at each other.

Gingrich had been gaining traction in the race hammering away at Romney over his investments in Freddy and Frannie. Romney was ready this time.

“Have you checked your own investments,” Romney asked. “You also have investments in mutual funds that also invest in Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac.”

Gingrich came back at Romney in a way that we have come to expect from the former Speaker: he said comparing his investments in Freddy and Fannie to Romney’s was like comparing a “tiny mouse” to a “giant elephant.”

The elephant in the room was actually former U.S. Sen. from Pennsylvania Rick Santorum, who has enough support in Florida to swing the primary to either of the big dogs in the race. He had a strong performance – probably his best yet – but he knows that his chances are slim going forward without a win in Florida.

And he is not going to get it. But Santorum presses on, hoping for another miracle like the one he pulled out in Iowa. Or maybe a cushy Vice President gig.

“Can we set aside that Newt was a member of Congress and used the skills that he developed as a member of Congress to go out and advise companies – and that’s not the worst thing in the world – and that Mitt Romney is a wealthy guy because he worked hard and he’s going out and working hard?” Santorum said.

Photo: Fran Ruchalski/Sunshine Slate Images

Republican debate moderator Wolf Blitzer conducts business

Mister “man on dog” sex sounding reasonable? The guy who’s public comments about homosexuals were so offensive to gays that they literally turned his last name into something synonymous with the aftermath of an anal sex act?

Maybe he should moderate the next event. Google could host.

As for U.S. Rep. from Texas Ron Paul, he’s still the comic relief of the quartet. You never know what will come out of his mouth. When Blitzer asked Paul if he believed that any profits earned from investing in Freddy and Fannie should be returned, his response drew howls.

“That subject doesn’t really interest me,” said Paul.

But not everyone is laughing. For Gingrich, the ride may be all but over now – and he was so close. Romney stole his debate thunder and now he’s also got a seemingly healthy lead in Florida. The wild swings of the race may die down now that Republicans realize that for better or worse, Romney is their man.

A Quinnipiac poll released just this morning shows Romney with an almost double-digit lead (9 points) over Gingrich. The poll was conducted earlier this week before the debate.

And with Romney’s Oscar-worthy performance in Jacksonville, it is generally assumed that his lead will widen over the weekend before Floridians head to the polls.

By: Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate

Images: Fran Ruchalski/Sunshine Slate Images

Republican debate

[Jacksonville, FL] With poll results showing each of them surging at different points of the week and with the enormous stakes of Tuesday’s Florida presidential primary, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney face different challenges as each takes the stage for tonight’s Republican debate in Jacksonville.

For Gingrich, the challenge is to try to keep his momentum going after soundly beating Romney in last week’s South Carolina primary and reviving his once-faint hopes of winning the nomination.

For Romney, the debate is a chance to reverse days of negative headlines, from reports that he actually lost the Iowa caucuses to former Sen. Rick Santorum – who originally came in second by eight votes – to his faltering answers on releasing his tax returns, something Romney finally did earlier this week.

Santorum and Congressman Ron Paul, meanwhile, face the prospect of trying to secure more attention for their long-shot bids in a room expected to be dominated by the showdown between Romney and Gingrich.

In between all of that, the candidates might also have to deal with situations unique to Florida – a housing market roiled by the foreclosure crisis, Cuban immigrants that make up a sizable chunk of the Republican base and the large number of older Floridians that call the state home.

The state’s AARP branch is already arguing that the neither of the Republican campaigns nor President Obama have focused enough on Social Security or Medicare.

Image: DonkeyHotey

Will Gingrich have a strong performance in tonight’s Republican debate?

“We’re pleased that candidates are talking to Floridians 50-plus,” Jeff Johnson, AARP Florida interim state director said in a statement issued Wednesday. ”Now let’s hear them say something – something specific – about how their plans would affect real Floridians.”

Polls suggest Gingrich and Romney are far ahead of the other candidates but neck-and-neck with each other. A recent poll by Quinnipiac University showed Gingrich surging coming out of South Carolina, while a CNN/Time/ORC International Poll showed Romney regaining his edge by the time Tuesday rolled around.

Romney performed well in Florida in 2008 – getting 31% of the vote but losing to U.S. Sen. John McCain – and was expected to be a formidable candidate in the Sunshine State because of a sizable fundraising advantage.

“This should be a strong state for Romney,” said Matthew Corrigan, a political science professor at the University of North Florida (UNF), where Tuesday night’s debate will be held. “If Romney lost this state, it would be a big blow to him.”

To rebound, Romney needs to “be bold,” said state Sen. John Thrasher (R-8/St. Augustine) perhaps the highest-profile legislator to endorse Romney early in the cycle.

“I think ultimately people are going to decide on the basis that they want a person that they can believe could beat Barack Obama,” Thrasher said.

Corrigan said Romney should also try to flip the argument on Gingrich, who has taken a beating from Romney and his surrogates. Romney’s campaign has suggested that Gingrich is erratic, has a chaotic leadership style and engaged in influence-peddling after leaving the speakership in “disgrace.”

Image: DonkeyHotey

Will tonight’s Republican debate be Ron Paul’s last?

“I think his strongest argument is that Gingrich is not electable,” Corrigan said.

Gingrich, meanwhile, will look to shine in tonight’s forum after a lackluster performance Monday.

The former House speaker has used debates to propel himself in the polls in earlier states.

Several observers blamed NBC’s stern instructions to the crowd not to applaud the candidates for Monday’s poor showing; Gingrich seemed to feed off the audience in earlier debates.

The former speaker threatened to pull out of future debates if the crowds were quieted, but CNN has said those in attendance will be allowed to clap this evening.

“Gingrich has to do his best to please the crowed and recapture the lightning he had in South Carolina,” said Rick Wilson, a Republican strategist in Florida who is not affiliated with any campaign.

For Santorum, who was unable to ride his Iowa win to lasting success, and Paul, the mission of simply remaining a factor in the race is a tall order. Paul’s dovish foreign-policy views alienate large swaths of the GOP electorate, and he has all but conceded Florida to focus on later caucus states.

Photo: UNF Facebook

Setting the stage: First peek at the Republican debate podiums

“I stopped paying attention to Ron Paul, except to mock him, months ago,” Wilson said.

Gingrich’s surge in the Quinnipiac University poll appeared to show him gaining strength after the South Carolina results were announced, largely at Paul and Santorum’s expense.

While the larger margin of error for the subgroups was enough to raise some questions about how real that change was, it could suggest a coalescing of conservative support that some movement conservatives have hoped for in order to stop Romney.

John Stemberger, president of the Florida Family Policy Council, said conservative’s choices are essentially down to Gingrich and Santorum.

“They’re not looking at Romney,” he said. “That’s clear to me.”

Stemberger – who supported Texas Gov. Rick Perry before his implosion – was among a group of social conservative leaders who recently endorsed Santorum in the hopes that he could consolidate the right. Stemberger now worries that the group’s support “was unfortunately a little too late in the game to affect South Carolina or Florida.”

And the biggest game-changer left on the board – tonight’s debate – could further strengthen Gingrich.

“Let’s face it: While he’s not my candidate, Newt Gingrich is just a master communicator,” Stemberger said.

Whether that’s enough to overcome Romney’s advantage in ads and organization is a question that won’t be answered until Tuesday. And the results are almost certain to reverberate long after the candidates have left Florida.

By: Brandon Larrabee/The News Service of Florida

Lead image: DonkeyHotey

Republican debate

[Hamden, CT] Earlier this month, Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney had a 12-point lead over Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich in Florida Republican primary polling. But that was before Gingrich’s somewhat stunning win in South Carolina and several recent spot-on debate performances.

Now Romney and Gingrich are tied, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. And voters (who haven’t cast ballots already) head to the booths on Tuesday (Jan. 31).

“Florida is essentially a dead heat and a two-man race between Gov. Mitt Romney and Speaker Newt Gingrich entering the last week of the campaign,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

The numbers are actually 36% for Romney and 34% for Gingrich among likely voters in the Florida Republican primary for president. The 2% falls within the poll’s margin of error, so essentially they are tied.

“Gingrich’s South Carolina victory clearly gives him a boost in Florida. The question is whether there is more of that to come, or whether any bump from a previous victory will dissipate as happened to Rick Santorum in New Hampshire after winning Iowa and Romney in South Carolina after taking New Hampshire,” Brown added.

What should really worry Romney is that Gingrich gets 40% to his 34% among likely voters surveyed after the South Carolina primary. People do like a winner, and folks in Florida relate much more to people in South Carolina than they do in Iowa or New Hampshire. Drop-out Rick Perry also endorsed Gingrich six days ago.

Photo: Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate Images

Mitt Romney can’t believe he’s tied with Newt Gingrich in the latest Republican primary poll

And don’t forget that there are two other candidates in the race, although it is clear neither of them have a shot of winning Florida. Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum sits at 13% while Texas Congressman Ron Paul polls last at 10%.

Romney should feel some measure of satisfaction as his 36% is the same 36% he had earlier this month (Jan. 9), so he isn’t losing anybody’s support just yet. But Gingrich certainly is surging gaining twelve points in two weeks.

Still, there are some wild cards out there as 38% say they might change their mind. Maybe that’s what Paul and Santorum are banking on. Mostly Santorum, Paul doesn’t really have a chance as he has yet to win anything.

The polling shows that Romney is viewed “as best able to handle the economy and most sharing voters’ values” while Gingrich is seen “as having the knowledge and experience to be president, being a strong leader and better at handling foreign policy.”

Gingrich is favored by men and Romney is favored by women (not a surprise there). Gingrich has strong leads with white evangelical Christians (43%–30%) and tea party supporters (43%– 28%).

Photo: Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate Images

Can Rick Santorum come from behind in the Florida Republican primary?

But what makes this match-up so interesting and complex is that Romney is viewed more favorably than Gingrich. Santorum is also rated high when it comes to favorability, while Paul is actually in the negative.

“Newt Gingrich’s edge is that he is the candidate with momentum and the one viewed as best on a host of issues and characteristics important to voters. Romney, however, holds the potential trump card that on the question most important to voters – who can best fix the economy – he is seen as the best candidate,” said Brown.

Romney is also seen as the candidate best able to defeat President Obama, the poll shows. And voters say they prefer “a candidate who can defeat President Obama over one who shares their values,” which should help Romney ultimately nudge out Gingrich.

Should? Yes. Will he? There’s nothing predictable about this race for the hearts and minds of Florida’s Republican primary voters.

From Jan. 19–23, Quinnipiac University surveyed 601 Republican likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4%. The survey includes 254 voters surveyed Jan. 19–21, before South Carolina results were announced, with a margin of error of +/- 6.2%, and 347 voters surveyed Jan. 22–23, after the South Carolina results, with a margin of error of +/- 5.3%.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research.

By: Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate

Images: Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate Images

Republican primary

[Tampa, FL] The Republican primary candidates moved to Florida in full force Monday night, with the four remaining candidates clashing on electability, the housing market and space issues in a debate in Tampa with the state’s vote a little more than a week away.

The candidates largely agreed on a slate of Florida-specific issues they were asked about, but only after a sharp exchange at the beginning of the debate about who would be best to take on President Barack Obama in the general election.

In the most-anticipated clash of the night, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia fought over whose lingering issues might hurt him most against Obama.

Romney tried once again to deflect questions about his decision to wait until Tuesday to release his tax return for 2011. Romney has not specified how many earlier years he might release or when he might do so. Romney promised there would be no surprises when the documents were release.

“The real question is not so much my taxes, but the taxes of the American people,” Romney said.

Gingrich, meanwhile, brushed off Romney’s attacks on his work for government-sponsored mortgage giant Freddie Mac – with Romney having suggested that Gingrich was involved in influence-peddling, claims Gingrich said were false.

Image: DonkeyHotey

Newt Gingrich (left) and Mitt Romney (right) lead the Republican primary field

“You have been walking around this state saying things that are not true,” Gingrich said.

But Romney mocked Gingrich’s claim that he was working for Freddie Mac as an historian.

“They don’t pay people $25,000 a month for six years as an historian,” Romney said.

Former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania tried to explain why he would remain a strong Republican primary candidate in spite of soundly losing a re-election bid in 2006 – noting that the national and state climates were hostile to the GOP that year and suggesting he would be a stronger conservative than either of the front-runners.

“There’s one thing worse than losing an election and that’s not standing for the principles you hold,” Santorum said.

Aside from Freddie Mac, most of the housing talk at the debate focused on how involved the government should be in trying to stabilize the market. Romney, who had argued last year that the government should “let [the foreclosure process] run its course and hit the bottom” emphasized trying to help homeowners on Monday night.

But Romney also stood by his largely non-interventionist message.

“You have to get government out of the mess,” Romney said. “It created the mess.”

Image: DonkeyHotey

Republican primary: Rick Santorum (left) and Ron Paul (right) are still in the race

Romney and Gingrich agreed on what they said was the need to repeal the financial reform bill signed by Obama in 2010. Santorum said homeowners should be allowed to claim the losses on the sale of a home as a tax deduction.

Congressman Ron Paul of Texas, whose strongly libertarian campaign has outlasted several more conventional candidates, pushed to allow the markets to work toward spurring home sales.

“You want the prices to go down so that people will start buying them again,” Paul said.

Romney, who spent part of his time hammering Obama for having failed Florida as the state’s unemployment rate spiked above 10% and its housing market continued to sink, also knocked the president on his policies regarding space exploration, a vital industry for the state.

“What we have right now is a president who does not have a vision or a mission for NASA,” Romney said.

Gingrich, whose interest in space often draws derision from his critics, pushed for government to focus on giving incentives or prizes to private companies who reach certain goals.

“There’s a whole series of things you can do that are dynamic that are better than just more government bureaucracy,” he said.

The Republican primary candidates also largely agreed on trying to roll back sugar subsidies, pushing English as the official language and abhorring the Communist regime in Cuba.

Democrats, watching from the sidelines, knocked the debate as little more than an extended bout of pandering.

“This isn’t a race to the White House, it’s a race to the right. … This field has made clear they want to continue with giveaways to millionaires and billionaires at the expense of Florida’s middle class families,” Florida Democratic Party Chairman Rod Smith said in a statement issued moments after the forum ended.

The candidates will meet again Thursday in Jacksonville in the final debate before the Florida Republican primary January 31st.

By: Brandon Larrabee/The News Service of Florida

Images: Donkey Hotey

Republican primary

[Hamden, CN] A pair of Quinnipiac polls for Florida have been released and it it is good news all around for Mitt Romney, who was already having a big week with his decisive win in the New Hampshire primary.

According to the Quinnipiac data, the former Massachusetts governor has a rather large likely voter lead in the race for the GOP’s Florida presidential primary in a poll released Jan. 9. Florida’s  likely Republican primary voters favor Romney 36%.

But a staggering 54% say they are undecided or mind change their mind. The Florida presidential primary is three weeks away (Jan. 31).

“Gov. Mitt Romney has a double-digit lead in Florida among likely primary voters,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “But the primary is three weeks away and the results from New Hampshire and South Carolina could shake things up in the Sunshine State.”

“With more than half of voters saying they might change their minds and more than 50% of them backing candidates perceived as more conservative, Romney could be vulnerable if those voters settle on one candidate,” said Brown.

The poll shows former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with a respectable 24%. Red hot Rick Santorum sits third at 16%, while Ron Paul rounds out the top four at 10%.

This is independent polling center Quinnipiac’s first look at likely primary voters.

Gingrich is still in the hunt in Florida Presidential Primary

Breaking It Down

Tea Party members are likely to vote for Romney and Gingrich (at 32% each) but show a surprisingly low voting affinity to Santorum (19%) and Paul (7%).

Likeablity is another matter altogether, although the numbers aren’t that far off.

The poll shows that Florida likely GOP primary voters like Romney the best – he’s got a healthy 73% favorability rating. Santorum comes in second at 59%, tied with Gingrich (although Newt has a higher negative rating).

Tea Partiers seemingly like Gingrich the best – he nets a 76% favorability rating while Santorum and Romney are at 72%.

Evangelical Christians have their sights on Romney (28 %) versus Gingrich (26%) and Santorum (20%).

Looking Ahead …

Today, Quinnipiac released a poll that surveyed more than 1000 registered voters in Florida. How did the candidates do?

Romney also matches up well against Obama in the Sunshine State, netting 46% of registered voters to President Obama’s 43%. Of course, the election is still 10 months away and a lot can happen.

Still, it is good news for Romney who has weathered all kinds of storms, including constant attacks from the five other GOP candidates and intensified media scrutiny.

Rick Santorum, the GOP field’s current flavor of the week, doesn’t match up as well against Obama. The former Senator from Pennsylvania scores 43% to Obama’s 45%, so says the Qunnipiac polling data.

Photo: Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate Images

Santorum is surging in the polls

“Florida is among the most important swing states in the country and if the election was today President Barack Obama would have difficulty winning its electoral votes,” said Brown.

The poll shows that the President has negative  job approval rating (at 54%). And 52% of Florida voters say that he has not earned a second stint in the White House.

“But the election isn’t for 10 more months so he has plenty of time to turn things around,” said brown putting the numbers in perspective. “Nevertheless, President Obama needs to mend fences in the Sunshine State, especially among men, whites and those voters without college degrees. The difference among voters by age is especially striking.”

When it comes to Democrats, Obama wins 84% of them compared to Romney’s 9%. Obama also is showing support among 47% of independent voters and almost zero support (4%) from Republicans.

President Obama scored a 46% percent positive with woman and a 52% negative with men.

State Senate Race

Florida’s U.S. Senate race is a virtual dead heat, with Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson at 41% and the leading Republican challenger – U.S. Rep. Connie Mack – at 40%.

“Connie Mack remains far ahead of the GOP field and there has been little movement since he entered the race late last year. With four out of 10 GOP primary voters still undecided, nothing is certain, but one would much rather be in Mack’s shoes than any of the other GOP contenders,” Brown said.

Mack’s favorability rating is at 32%, although 54% don’t know enough about him to make a decision.

As for Nelson, he’s sitting on a 47% job approval rating and a 41% favorability rating.

“Good but not great,” said Brown, “and voters say 44% to 35% he deserves another six years in the Senate.”

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research.

By: Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate

Images: Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate Images

Florida presidential primary

[Miami, FL] Former Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum, former Orange County Mayor Richard Crotty, and the Deputy Chief of Staff for former Gov. Jeb Bush during his time in Tallahassee (and current health care administrator/policy expert) Alan Levine have joined team Gingrich.

They top the list of politicians and political operatives on the just-announced roster of statewide leaders and steering committee members that will have an active role in Newt Gingrich’s presidential campaign.

With the Florida presidential primary mere weeks away (Jan. 31), the Newt 2012 FL campaign has a lot of work to do if they want to put the former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives into the White House.

But first, Newt needs to win Florida.

“Florida is always a top prize in the presidential election with 29 electoral votes, having statewide leadership like Bill McCollum, Rich Crotty and Alan Levine positions our campaign to tap the organizational resources of former elected officials and the intangibles that are key to Florida campaigns,” remarked Jose Mallea, Florida State Director for Newt 2012 .

“We are grateful for their support and guidance,” Mallea concluded.

McCollum – a former member of the U.S. House of Representatives himself who served alongside Gingrich during his high-profile reign as Speaker – will serve as Newt’s Statewide Campaign Chairman for Florida.

“Newt Gingrich is the strongest possible candidate that the GOP can field against Obama in 2012,” McCollum announced during his endorsement of Newt Gingrich for President. “Newt is the right person with the right set of leadership skills and vision for our country at this critical time.”

“Newt is the most likely Republican candidate to defeat President Obama,” said McCollum. “He is the most able to articulate the conservative positions, is the most concise and convincing advocate, speaking and debating, is the most versed on foreign policy, and has the best plan to restore the economy.”

Gingrich, who was virtually tied with perpetual frontrunner Mitt Romney in a poll conducted of likely Republican Party of Florida voters last month, has been slipping a bit as of late. In Tuesday’s Iowa caucuses, Gingrich finished a distant fourth while Romney came out on top.

And Iowa is a conservative state, which has to worry Gingrich who is considered much more conservative – in many respects, anyway – than Romney.

Photo: Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate Images

Newt does not shy away from the spotlight

The reasons for the slide? Attack ads from pro-Romney Super PACs have reminded voters of Gingrich’s personal and political ethical lapses, not to mention the former Speaker’s penchant for using the type of over-the-top hyperbole usually reserved for news-show pundits – and even a few Hillary Clinton-esque tears – on the campaign trail.

And then there is Gingrich himself, always reminding voters of the special kind of “wait, did he just say that?” moments he is capable of. On national television. Repeatedly. He actually said that as President, he would instruct U.S. Marshals and/or The Capitol Police to arrest judges that he thought were uncooperative or too radical.

Those types of comments are making Romney’s job all too easy, say political experts. Romney, the more polished candidate, understands that he should just keep his mouth shut whenever possible and let Newt do the talking. Mitt should know – he’s been running for president since 2008.

In turn, Gingrich has been chastising Romney for the negative ads and his moderate stances on the issues that are of importance to conservative voters. Unfortunately for Newt, the verdict already appears to be in: Romney’s slick, hands-off approach of a campaign has been winning the battle of public perception.

Even Gingrich understands this as he has started to throw hardballs in Romney’s direction, calling the former governor and Wall Street businessman a “timid Massachusetts moderate” in press releases.

But not everyone is buying what Romney is selling, as Florida politicos align themselves with Newt for this final 25-day Florida run.

Crotty – announced as a Newt 2012 FL Co-Chair along with Levine – prefers Gingrich, calling him, “a proven conservative leader who knows how to hold the line on taxes and balance a budget.”

“Newt’s commitment to economic opportunity, as it relates to our nation’s space program is important; thousands of jobs were lost when Obama scrapped plans to return astronauts to space,” said the former Orange County Mayor.

Photo: Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate Images

Gingrich poses for a picture at last year’s CPAC in Orlando

The Newt 2012 Florida Steering Committee members:

By: Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate

Images: Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate Images

Florida presidential primary

[Verona, PA] With his surprise showing in the Iowa caucuses Tuesday, former Sen. Rick Santorum might have won himself a second look from voters in the Florida presidential primary on Jan. 31.

He also may have earned himself key consideration during the Jan. 26 GOP primary debate in Jacksonville.

“Last night we made a statement, a statement for the restoration of the founding values that made our country the greatest nation in the world,” emailed Santorum after the near-win in Iowa. “We spoke directly with the people of Iowa, in coffee shops and living rooms. We held over 370 town hall meetings, in all 99 counties.”

Sure, he did the Hawkeye math, but he also knows how to read a map. And it is a long journey to the White House by any measure, and the veteran campaigner knows it.

“We did not speed date our way through Iowa, we courted her votes and tonight were rewarded,” the politician from the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania said via email. “But this is just the beginning, a beginning of a long journey to a brighter future for all Americans.”

A “long journey” is right. Plus, there is that whole Google-his-name mess (it is not pretty).

Santorum starts out behind and likely needing more than the momentum of a strong showing in Iowa – he essentially tied with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who won by eight votes – to be a factor in the Florida presidential primary.

And, political observers note, the Iowa vote was the first of three contests before the Florida presidential primary at the end of the month, with primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina likely to shake up the field again before the Sunshine State votes.

Photo: Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate Images

 Mitt Romney is still the frontrunner in Florida as hr gears up for the Florida presidential primary

According to a poll by Tel Opinion Research in the middle of December, Santorum was tied with former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman for last in Florida with 1%. Frontrunner Romney and former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who came in a disappointing fourth in Iowa, were far ahead with 27% and 26% of the vote, respectively.

But 31% of Republican voters in Florida said they hadn’t decided who to back, meaning the race remained volatile.

Santorum did do slightly better in a straw poll of party activists in Orlando in September, coming in fourth behind pizza magnate Herman Cain, who has since dropped out, Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Romney.

In any case, Santorum had fewer resources available to him than competitors like Romney, Gingrich and Perry – something that could come into play when the candidates move to Florida, the most expensive state among the first four contests.

“With 10 media markets, it’s not Iowa,” said John Stemberger, president of the Florida Family Policy Council.

Stemberger has endorsed Perry but admitted that the Texas governor “does not seem to be resonating.”

But money is not the only thing that could trip up Santorum in Florida, observers say.

Susan MacManus, a political science professor at the University of South Florida, said Republicans in the state are more concerned about electability and less worried about the cultural issues credited with helping Santorum vault to the front in Iowa.

Photo: Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate Images

Texas Gov. Rick Perry “does not seem to be resonating” with Florida voters

“Without question, the Florida Republicans are more about fiscal conservatism than social conservatism,” she said.

At the same time, Romney excels in money and organization but is still fighting the nagging perception that Republicans haven’t accepted him. Almost three-fourths of Republicans in Iowa voted for another candidate, and Romney’s share of the vote was almost the same as he drew in 2008.

“Romney has challenges too,” said Matthew Corrigan, a political science professor at the University of North Florida. “He’s got all the weapons, but he doesn’t have the passion.”

The intervening contests will begin to shake some of that out. Efforts to consolidate conservatives behind one anti-Romney candidate might be stronger as the results prompt some candidates to drop their campaigns.

“The biggest thing that’s brought clarity for social conservatives is Michele Bachmann dropping out,” Stemberger said.

Other candidates have staked their campaigns on other states. After beginning his campaign with an Orlando headquarters, Huntsman has since staked his success on what happens in New Hampshire next Tuesday, though polls have shown Romney with a strong lead in the state.

“If he does well, then I think that he leapfrogs South Carolina and does hit Florida,” MacManus said.

Photo: Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate Images

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich seems to be fading down the stretch

At the same time, Perry is preparing for something approaching a last stand in South Carolina, where he is expected to do well among rural and Southern voters that shape much of that state’s GOP electorate.

“He has to do well in South Carolina,” Stemberger said. “If he doesn’t, it’s over for him.”

But Perry also faces obstacles among the conservative base in Florida, Stemberger said. The Texas governor’s stock plummeted at the Orlando straw poll in part because he questioned the “heart” of those who didn’t share his views on illegal immigration – which many interpreted as a swipe at conservatives.

“The question is, can the tea party forgive him for what they feel might have been an insult in the Florida debate?” Stemberger said.

If the first three states splinter among various GOP contenders, it could set up the Florida presidential primary as “the great decider,” MacManus said. But there is a flip side of that.

“The problem for Florida is, if Romney wins big in New Hampshire and somehow pulls something out in South Carolina, then Florida becomes less important,” Corrigan said.

Florida Gov. Rick Scott didn’t seem to be too concerned about that possibility when interviewed Wednesday morning on CNBC.

“The place is going to be Florida,” Scott said of what will make or break the primary.

He noted the state has 4 million Republicans and he said the Florida presidential primary turnout is expected to be high, based on a large absentee ballot request.

“It’s going to be a tough place to play, but you’re going to have to play here. … You have to win Florida to win the White House. I don’t know how you can do it without it,” Scott said.

By: Brandon Larrabee/The News Service of Florida. With additional reporting by Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate

Images: Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate Images

Florida presidential primary

[Tallahassee, FL] As the state’s voters begin to focus on the pivotal Florida Republican presidential primary at the end of January, the leading contenders are former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia, according to a poll by Tel Opinion Research.

Romney and Gingrich are essentially in a statistical dead heat, with Romney leading with 27% of the vote to Gingrich’s 26%, according to the telephone survey of 780 Republican voters, conducted from Dec. 15-19.

Bill Lee, a Republican pollster who co-founded Tel Opinion, said that matches the national pattern, with Romney and Gingrich drawing most of the media attention.

“Leading into Iowa, this is essentially a tie ball game between those two,” Lee said.

The trend also matches an ideological split that appears to have hampered Romney’s drive to the nomination: Doubts remain about him among the most conservative elements of the Republican Party and religious conservatives.

Among self-identified members of the tea-party movement, Gingrich leads by eight points, 28-16. The two men almost evenly divide other voters, 28-26 in favor of Romney.

Gingrich also leads by 14% among very conservative voters, while Romney holds a 15-point edge among those who call themselves “somewhat conservative.” The two are essentially tied among moderates, with Gingrich holding a 20-17 advantage.

Photo: Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate Images

Ron Paul is polling a distant third in Florida Prior to the Florida Republican Presidential Primary

Gingrich also leads Romney among those who attend church more than once a week, with those who go to church weekly about evenly split. Voters who attend less frequently favor Romney, often strongly.

The poll was conducted just as Gingrich, who surged to the front of the pack on the strength of debate performances, saw his numbers begin to slip in Iowa and elsewhere under a barrage of attacks from his competitors and so-called Super PACs supporting them.

And 31% of Republican voters in Florida said they hadn’t decided who to back, meaning the race remains volatile with about a month to go before the Jan. 31 primary.

None of their other competitors hit double digits. Texas Congressman Ron Paul, whose libertarian streak has vaulted him into contention in Iowa, holds just 5% of the votes of those surveyed by Tel Opinion. Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and Texas Gov. Rick Perry – who had hoped to perform strongly in the Florida Republican Presidential Primary – were next, tied at 4%.

Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who had initially based his campaign in Florida before shifting his focus to New Hampshire, was tied with former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum with 1%.

Brian Graham, a Republican consultant in Florida not aligned with any of the candidates, said he wasn’t surprised that the candidates drawing the most coverage are getting the highest numbers.

“They are the candidates with the most name ID,” said Graham, who works with Dixie Strategies. “This is a big state. … Most candidates haven’t paid much attention to Florida right now.”

Photo: Mark Foley/House Photo

Florida House Speaker Dean Cannon

As votes roll in from early states like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina and candidates ramp up their efforts for the Florida Republican Presidential Primary, Graham said the situation could change, even beyond the voters who call themselves undecided.

“I would highly doubt that any of the voters are truly, truly firmly decided on their candidates,” he said.

The poll was another dose of bad news for Perry, who had taken a lead in the state shortly after announcing his candidacy but before a series of debate gaffes undermined his candidacy.

Florida House Speaker Dean Cannon (R-35/Winter Park), one of Perry’s earliest supporters, brushed aside a question earlier this month about whether he was surprised that the governor’s campaign had failed to gain traction.

“I think if anything, I’m surprised at the overall ups and downs of all of the candidates,” Cannon said.

Graham said Perry’s gaffes had badly hurt him among Republican voters who are concerned chiefly with defeating President Barack Obama in the November elections.

“I think that a lot of Republicans were uncomfortable with Rick Perry’s inability to perform well with public speaking and the debates,” he said.

But Lee said the 31% undecided bloc could still make room for one more candidate with the necessary resources if it moves beyond Iowa and the first-in-the-nation primary in New Hampshire. Perry raised millions before his troubles began.

“The third player might be Governor Perry,” Lee said.

By: Brandon Larrabee/The News Service of Florida

Lead images: Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate Images

Florida Republican presidential primary

Sure, We Need Another Hero … But Does He/She Have To Be Named Bush?

Opinion from the desk of Mark Christopher

[New York, NY] Late last month, former Florida governor Jeb Bush wrote an opinion column for The Wall Street Journal extolling the virtues of the free market and how if we just stop regulating, we can enjoy our “right to rise” as Americans.

“We have to make it easier for people to do the things that allow them to rise. We have to let them compete. We need to let people fight for business. We need to let people take risks. We need to let people fail. We need to let people suffer the consequences of bad decisions. And we need to let people enjoy the fruits of good decisions, even good luck,” wrote Bush.

Too bad he didn’t tell his brother George any of this, oh say, ten years ago.

The conservative blogosphere ignited with fever dreams of the former Gov. Bush jumping into the 2012 presidential race to save the GOP ticket, which currently finds the unlikeable – and ethically/factually challenged – former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich is moving to the front.

No wonder Republicans are clamoring for Jeb – since 2008, they have been searching for an alternative to Mitt Romney, someone, anyone other than the religious cult leader mega-millionaire with the personality of a catfish and car-salesman hair who basically implemented the blueprint to President Obama’s health-care overhaul they are all campaigning against.

Yeah I said cult. Ask an ex-Mormon, they’ll tell you. Not to mention Romney’s the world’s biggest flip-flopper on just about every hot-button issue for conservatives.

But another Bush? C’mon. I think the country would rather sit through four more years of Obama, or – gasp – four years of Newt Inc. before we handed the country’s keys to the Bush family again. However much smarter Jeb is than W, it doesn’t matter – the damage done by the Bush family reign is why the country is the way it is now.

Can a Bush fix it? Maybe, but the Bush family had their chance in 2000 and they sent us the dumb one, the one Karl Rove and Dick Cheney could control like a puppet. We are still cleaning up that crime scene. The mighty white GOP is wisely trying to pin it all on Obama – you know, blame the black guy – but the electorate is a little smarter than that.

Photo: Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate Images

Newt Gingrich is now tied Mitt Romney in the GOP’s quest to beat President Obama

They know that both Iraq and Afghanistan was Bush’s doing, as was the massive Wall Street bail out. They know the mortgage crisis happened under W’s watch as did 9-11. They know that deficits soared and the income gap between the haves and the have-nots widened exponentially under W’s trickle-down theology.

They know that the middle class is flailing while CEOs are banking tens of millions of dollars a year, practically tax free. George W. Bush’s fingerprints are all over the place and the chalk outline that used to be America is being erased to make room for the next big Koch Brothers-approved money machine.

For gosh sakes, W left office with an approval rating of 22%.

But that’s how bad Gingrich, Romney, Ron Paul (heroin, anyone?), Herman Cain (Mr. Hanky Panky, really?) and Rick Perry (he’s Texas Toast) are – bad enough to consider another Bush, even if he is “the smart one.” What they don’t understand is that Jeb Bush is not 100% conservative either. He doesn’t cotton to guys like Grover Norquist putting the screws to his policies, or play Rove’s reindeer games.

Jeb Bush doesn’t play by anybody’s rules but Jeb’s. He is pragmatic and unpredictable, like Obama. In short, Jeb’s a Democrat – he just leans much, much farther to the right than your average bear. You, know, like a Republican.

Does that make any sense? Neither does Jeb Bush in 2012, at least according to the man, the myth, the sort-of legend himself.

“Republicans will be choosing from the candidates currently in the race,” Jeb Bush told Right Turn last month.

Get over it Republicans – no one is gonna ride in on a glorious white horse and carry you off to Happy Conservative Place, you know the place where everything is colored brilliantly in red, white and blue, nobody on the right side of the aisle ever does anything wrong, and Ann Coulter does three shows nightly.

Your choice is simple: Mitt or Newt. Slick 50 or old salty. Get used to the taste Republicans.

By: Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate

Lead images: Newt Gingrich & Mitt Romney pics by Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate Images. Jeb Bush photo: official Governor’s photo

Jeb Bush

[Orlando, FL] Orlando’s other big Republican hob-nobber – the Presidency 5 (P5) conference, debate and straw poll – that wrapped on Saturday ended with a surprise finish, according to The Hill. The event, which took place at the Orange County Convention Center alongside CPAC FL, was sponsored by the Republican Party of Florida (RPOF) and the Florida Realtors.

The winner? None other than Herman Cain. Yep, the “pizza guy” as he is being called due to his former gig as CEO of the Godfather’s Pizza chain.

Cain absolutely crushed all comers by getting a whopping 37% of the vote. Perceived front-runners Rick Perry (15%) and Mitt Romney (14%) will be scratching their heads after this outcome.

Michele Bachmann’s campaign took another big hit with a pathetic single-digit outcome at P5 that landed her in the basement along with morbid curiosities such as Newt Gingrich and Jon Huntsman.

“Mamma B” was bested by Ron Paul - no surprise there – and Rick Santorum. That’s gotta hurt, especially getting beat by Santorum, who has virtually no chance of winning the nomination.

Perhaps the outcome was due to the voting process, as the participants were hand-picked by the event’s sponsors.

By: Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate

Related reading:

Reinhard & Kaplan: GOP to Perry: Honeymoon over His lame second-place finish Saturday to the charismatic but little-known corporate executive Herman Cain in a straw poll of Florida Republicans, preceded by an equally lame appearance here in Thursday’s GOP presidential candidates’ debate, …

Mitt Romney outshines GOP rivals in Michigan straw poll Former Godfather’s Pizza Chief Executive Herman Cain, who scored a surprise victory in a Florida straw poll Saturday, was third with 9 percent Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, finished fourth with 8 percent; followed by Rep. Michelle Bachmann, R-Minn., …

Romney wins Michigan straw poll Romney placed first in the poll with 51 percent of the 681 ballots cast at the Republican Leadership Conference followed by Perry with 17 percent and businessman Herman Cain with 9 percent. Tea Party star Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., placed the highest …

For The Candidates, A Make-Or-Break Gathering Of The Tea Party-Influenced Conservative Movement

Words & Photos By: Mark Christopher

[Orlando, FL] The one-day Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC FL) was quite an extravaganza featuring the who’s-who of the Republican-GOP-conservative establishment and their various support systems, all gleefully packed into the Orange County Convention Center on Friday.

Some 3,000 like-minded attendees basked in the glory of their staunchly conservative heroes throughout a day filled with speeches, straw polls, panel discussions and autograph sessions.

You want heavy hitters? How about all ten of the Republican contenders for the 2012 Presidential race: Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain, Rick Santorum, Gary Johnson and even Thaddeus McCotter.

Who’s Thaddeus McCotter? Exactly.

Each gave a 12-minute speech making their case as to why those in in the expansive hall should consider them to be the best candidate to beat Obama come 2012. The crowd seemed to favor Paul, Gingrich, Cain and Santorum but were surprisingly cool to perceived front-runner Perry’s W-esque Texas charm.

Perhaps he should have better-memorized his speech instead of reading it like a high-school oral report. Has he already lost interest?

Gov. Rick Scott also made an appearance, and gave a well-received talk to the crowd, soliciting roars of approval for each of his stated conservative achievements and jabs at the other side of the aisle.

Unfortunately, scheduled speaker U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio was unable to make it as a pressing matter on the Senate floor was taking place in Washington D.C.

Gov. Rick Scott soars in front of a room full of friendlies

The biggest draw of the day was neither a candidate or a current office holder. That honor went to author and provocateur Ann Coulter, the sharp-tongued princess of the conservative movement. She insulted just about everybody – including many of the candidates themselves – but spent a majority of her 15 minutes on stage rallying the troops against President Obama, Liberals and Democrats via her trademark witticisms and insults.

The crowd loved every minute of it (there were a smattering of boos when she attacked Paul, however). They also got in a very long line for her book signing afterward.

Several high profile panel discussions also took place. National conservative front-line soldier Dick Armey paired up with the behind-the-scenes architect-wizard of the conservative platform – the one, the only Grover Norquist – to team-slam Obama and the entire Democratic-progressive-liberal way of thinking.

An outmatched Jeff Atwater – you know, Florida’s Chief Financial Officer – could only watch as these two captains of the conservative industry took shot after shot at the left.

Another star-studded panel on defeating “Obamacare” featured Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi, former Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum and State Senate President Mike Haridopolos. The packed-to-the-gills Meeting Room 1 was the place to be at 3:45 p.m., for sure.

Overall, the event was very, very white – I’d say about 99% Caucasian, in fact. The folks were dressed in their Sunday best and proudly displaying the button of their chosen cause (Pink Slip Debbie, Fair Tax, etc).

There was lots and lots of anti-government talk, bashing our current system – yet plenty of flag-waving, which seems at odds with each other.

Mostly they were there to listen to Ann Coulter and to see which one of these presidential show ponies were made of the right stuff. There was also a straw poll for the Republican nominee for the challenger to U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson – but they basically had to beg to get anyone to participate.

For the record, Adam Hasner won the poll.

She looks like she’d rather be in school

Ron Paul got a hero’s welcome

Dozens of booths offered all kinds of free information

Jon Huntsman offered an alternative to hard-nosed conservatism. He got nowhere

Presidential hopeful/pizza guy Herman Cain signed autographs

The view from the photographer’s pit

Michele Bachmann’s speaking style still sounds rushed

Decided against wearing a costume and just went with what he had on

Mitt Romney is as polished as they get

Ann Coulter brings the house down with the power of teal

Newt Gingrich grinning like the Cheshire Cat during his autograph session

OMG this guy is taking a picture of me

(L-R) Dick Armey soldiers on with Grover Norquist, who is making a point

A “gotcha” journalist in action

Mike Haridopolos prepares for a panel discussion. That’s Bill McCollum to his right

There was plenty of red, white and blue merchandise for sale

Rick Perry failed to fire up the crowd

The Mitt Romney booth offered free stickers and candy

Rick Santorum respectfully asks that you DO NOT GOOGLE HIS LAST NAME

[Orlando, FL] All eyes will be on Orlando tonight and tomorrow as most of the major conservative political figures will be in town to attend the CPAC FL Conference and its satellite offerings.

How often do you get to rub elbows with presidential hopefuls Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, Rick Santorum, Gary Johnson or Rick Perry? Or hang with the likes of conservative superstars Ralph Reed, Grover Norquist, Bill Kristol, Dick Armey and Ann Coulter?

And all in the same day? And for only $45!!

That’s the god, guns and glory of the Conservative Political Action Committee (CPAC) Conference sponsored by the American Conservative Union, the oldest members-only conservative organization in the United States.

CPAC FL is being held at the Orange County Convention Center’s South Concourse on Friday, September 23rd from 8:30 a.m.-6:30 p.m., but its impact will be felt across the nation for some time. Numerous speeches, panel discussions and meet-and-greets bookend the matter at hand: a poll to determine the convention’s choice for Republican presidential nominee.

It is all about “celebrating the shared principles of limited government, a strong national defense and traditional values,” according to the website.

With Florida playing such a crucial role in determining the nominee this year – its choice is the earliest barometer of a candidate who can win in a state with a population as large, varied and difficult as Florida – the stakes are high and the bragging rights worth millions in campaign donations.

And with all of the national heavy hitters in town, Florida’s Republican top dogs are taking the opportunity to bathe  in the spotlight as well, with speaking engagements, strategic appearances and home-turf posturing.

Those Sunshine Staters making the rounds include Gov. Rick Scott, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services Commissioner Adam Putnam, State Senate President Mike Haridopolis and Attorney General Pam Bondi.

The Presidency 5 event starts tonight and runs through Saturday. The similar political shindig, featuring a debate, straw poll and various discussions, will also take place in and around CPAC. It’s in the same building, in fact. Tonight there will be a debate and Saturday there’s a straw poll.

Presidency 5 is organized by the Republican Party of Florida and the Florida Realtors and is not affiliated in any way with CPAC.

By: Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate