[Hamden, CT] Earlier this month, Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney had a 12-point lead over Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich in Florida Republican primary polling. But that was before Gingrich’s somewhat stunning win in South Carolina and several recent spot-on debate performances.
Now Romney and Gingrich are tied, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. And voters (who haven’t cast ballots already) head to the booths on Tuesday (Jan. 31).
“Florida is essentially a dead heat and a two-man race between Gov. Mitt Romney and Speaker Newt Gingrich entering the last week of the campaign,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
The numbers are actually 36% for Romney and 34% for Gingrich among likely voters in the Florida Republican primary for president. The 2% falls within the poll’s margin of error, so essentially they are tied.
“Gingrich’s South Carolina victory clearly gives him a boost in Florida. The question is whether there is more of that to come, or whether any bump from a previous victory will dissipate as happened to Rick Santorum in New Hampshire after winning Iowa and Romney in South Carolina after taking New Hampshire,” Brown added.
What should really worry Romney is that Gingrich gets 40% to his 34% among likely voters surveyed after the South Carolina primary. People do like a winner, and folks in Florida relate much more to people in South Carolina than they do in Iowa or New Hampshire. Drop-out Rick Perry also endorsed Gingrich six days ago.
Photo: Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate Images
Mitt Romney can’t believe he’s tied with Newt Gingrich in the latest Republican primary poll
And don’t forget that there are two other candidates in the race, although it is clear neither of them have a shot of winning Florida. Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum sits at 13% while Texas Congressman Ron Paul polls last at 10%.
Romney should feel some measure of satisfaction as his 36% is the same 36% he had earlier this month (Jan. 9), so he isn’t losing anybody’s support just yet. But Gingrich certainly is surging gaining twelve points in two weeks.
Still, there are some wild cards out there as 38% say they might change their mind. Maybe that’s what Paul and Santorum are banking on. Mostly Santorum, Paul doesn’t really have a chance as he has yet to win anything.
The polling shows that Romney is viewed “as best able to handle the economy and most sharing voters’ values” while Gingrich is seen “as having the knowledge and experience to be president, being a strong leader and better at handling foreign policy.”
Gingrich is favored by men and Romney is favored by women (not a surprise there). Gingrich has strong leads with white evangelical Christians (43%–30%) and tea party supporters (43%– 28%).
Photo: Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate Images
Can Rick Santorum come from behind in the Florida Republican primary?
But what makes this match-up so interesting and complex is that Romney is viewed more favorably than Gingrich. Santorum is also rated high when it comes to favorability, while Paul is actually in the negative.
“Newt Gingrich’s edge is that he is the candidate with momentum and the one viewed as best on a host of issues and characteristics important to voters. Romney, however, holds the potential trump card that on the question most important to voters – who can best fix the economy – he is seen as the best candidate,” said Brown.
Romney is also seen as the candidate best able to defeat President Obama, the poll shows. And voters say they prefer “a candidate who can defeat President Obama over one who shares their values,” which should help Romney ultimately nudge out Gingrich.
Should? Yes. Will he? There’s nothing predictable about this race for the hearts and minds of Florida’s Republican primary voters.
From Jan. 19–23, Quinnipiac University surveyed 601 Republican likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4%. The survey includes 254 voters surveyed Jan. 19–21, before South Carolina results were announced, with a margin of error of +/- 6.2%, and 347 voters surveyed Jan. 22–23, after the South Carolina results, with a margin of error of +/- 5.3%.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research.
By: Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate
Images: Mark Christopher/Sunshine Slate Images
Republican primary
Who are you to say that Paul has or has not a chance at winning. That is for people to decide. Stick to your job and do what you are paid for. As for you negative biased comments, keep them to yourself.
Liers like you are pathetic and disgusting and i am getting tired of it.
Ron Paul is the most honest and honorable person in this run, and other cnadidates are starting to copy a lot of ideas. He also got a lot of vote in Iowa and was 2nd in NH – but of course you fail to mention that.
ah yes, “liers”
someone is educated.
I completely agree with your comment. Ron Paul deserves much better than the way he is treated by most of the media.
Ron Paul stands for a movement that is much bigger than himself. People are waking up though. His support is growing stronger everyday.
Ron Paul 2012
It doesn’t matter who wins because none can beat Obama. It is a total waste of money that should be given to the poor instead of billions on an election.
Maybe if the poor would get off their ass and get a job, rather than looking for a handout, the whole country would be better off.
Where do you think that the money that pays for their campaigns goes? It gives people jobs, so in essence it does exactly what you say it should do.
Obama is trying desperately to start a class war. The whole idea of rich having to give to poor is completely un-American. I am not rich, but I love the idea that I could become rich. We don’t need to make being wealthy seem wrong. We do need to do everything we can to eliminate corruption in the Government that leads to some becoming wealthy at the expense of the American People. We need to cut Government programs and promote private business in this country. We need to elect Ron Paul.
Newt pandering to Paul supporters is down right creepy. Paul’s supporters are much smarter than this. But Newt thinks noone is smarter than he is!
Romney can be trusted, and will reduce government. How can Newt say his personal life has nothing to do with his political life. If he can’t be true and faithful to his wife, how can he be true and faithful to his country? Especially when no one knows or is looking. Romney, you have my vote.
How do you know Newt was not true and faithful. It could well be the other way around. Women can lie also and I think that open marriage crap is just that, lies and even if it were true, he asked and how do you know Romney can be trusted>???
What planet have you been on? It is a well known fact Newt was not true and faithful to his second wife. His current wife was one of his aides in Congress and he had an 18 month affair before telling his wife. Doesn’t say much about either him nor his current wife as far as I can see.
I believe he also cheated on wife #1 with wife #2. We all make mistakes but that’s disgusting.
As an outsider following the primary election race from across the pond, I find it fasinating that this race is dominated by by the three G’s and an A ( Gods, Guns, Gays, & Abortion ) where as the sign on Bill Clintons desk was there as a reminder to him when it stated” Its the economy stupid”
As for those candidates who have been caught “playing away” during their marriage, I am reminded of a saying I heard many years ago. It said If he married his mistress he was creating a vacancy.
Seems when it comes to lies, people do not seem to notice that Obama is one of the biggest liars around.
Mark
You havn’t seen anything until you see the millions upon millions the Democratic party will dump into the Obama campaign.
Newt doesn’t have to think he is smarter than he is – he is in fact the most intellegent of the current GOP candidates.
I think it’s actually in the billions already.
Go Romney. Obama vacate the white House before you loose the Country for us
The liberal meeting don’t want Gingrich to win the Republican primary because he will demoralize Obama from there on out. So, the media writes opinions like “Romney is viewed more favorably”. The truth is not what the media reports but unfortunately people will believe the media before they make the effort to research a candidate in person or online. Its a shame. However, it says a lot for Gingrich as an idiot like Obama can only win with the liberal meeting steering his success for him. Not even a black president can make his own way.
Wrong Matt, the liberals WANT Gingrich to win the nomination because they know that no self respecting independent will vote for Gingrich. They are afraid, however, that if Romney is nominated independents will vote for him because he is seen as more moderate and that is what independents want. Anyone who knows politics knows that it is the independent voter who will decide who wins not those who are Democrat or Republican. So Matt, who I am sure is ultra conservative, you really should rethink who you are voting for. Maybe you like Gingrich but if you want someone who can actually win the White House you better vote Romney. I am independent and every independent I know feels the same way, we will never vote for Gingrich.
I don’t think any of the candidates are “wrong”. It depends on what you believe. If I’m a middle class Christian in California, the republicans would probably have my vote. If I were a homosexual from Manhattan, I’d be voting Democrat. And, unfortunately I was in a relationship where I was cheated on, but it didn’t make my husband do his job any differently. There are millions of cheaters in this world that still get the job done, man or woman. I think it’s ridiculous the standards we hold politicians too. People better clean their own closets first. This is why we keep ending up with POLITICIANS and not representatives for WE THE PEOPLE, because we elect those we think are above human. I much rather vote for someone that has life experience, as well as management experience. Just wish people would roll the dice and start registering and voting independent, so we can meet in the middle and the pendulum will stop swinging so much, one way or the other. Don’t believe the papers and the news. Do the research yourself, on the issues you feel the strongest about. Peace out fellow Americans!
I agree that cheating doesn’t mean you can’t do your job, but it does make you question their morality. It is also the icing on the cake since he also had to resign in disgrace for ethics violations. It’s just a part of the whole picture.
I agree with Alan, I think Gingrich is the better candidate, but Romney stamds better chance of winning because he is middle of the road and probably best to help the economy. Also, may draw a lot of Democratic votes, as many democrats are not to the extreme left nor see eye-eye w/Obama. These are the ones that is going to decide who is going to be president
To Renee, Amen
I agree about that registering independent. We need that third party sytem really bad. Far right, Far left and Independent.
I refuse to pick between Obama, Gingrich, Santorum or Romney. They all sound bad.
Ron Paul is the clear choice for real change. Forget about left or right Our future is all I care about.
He had 43 charges 42 of which were dropped. The only one came about trying to not succomb to lying, which they used against him. What would you do when the lawmakers
come after you?
I am glad I moved out of Florida, the Sun has fried the native’s brain.
That’s a lovely picture of Ron Paul…
My thoughts exactly..
To be honest almost everyone is right. In reality there are almost always multiple solutions to the same problem and the worlds current biggest problem is the fact that America wether we like it or not is still the most powerful country in the world and the fact that we can never decide on how to solve an issue is what has been giving our country such a bad rap in recent years. This election may turn out to be one of the more decisive elections in American history. I agree that Romney probably has the best face to run but I also acknowledge that Newt is a far more experienced politician and might be able to move congress more. However I think it’s sad that most people have been overlooking Paul who’s values are mostly libertarian so for the first time in a very long time we Americans have a chance to elect someone who stands out from the two part black and white system that has burdened our country for so long. And lastly I think that honestly what someone has done in the past does not at all represent who they currently are, the second you cross the line into past deeds almost anyone can be vilified and made to look bad which at this time I think is the last thing we should be concerned with.
Ron Paul is the clear choice for real change.
Gingrich and Santorum both will not be able to get enough delegates, so they are pretty much just wasting peoples time. Romney is bought and paid for just like Obama. There would hardly be a difference in the two, except maybe less swagger. So this leaves us with just one candidate left, Ron Paul. Sooner or later everyone will realize that Ron Paul is the only real choice we have.
“If there is one principle more deeply rooted in the mind of every American, it is that we should have nothing to do with conquest.” – Thomas Jefferson
“The man who reads nothing at all is better than educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers.” – Thomas Jefferson
“Was the government to prescribe to us our medicine and diet, our bodies would be in such keeping as our souls are now.” -Thomas Jefferson
“The policy of the American government is to leave their citizens free, neither restraining nor aiding them in their pursuits.”
-Thomas Jefferson
“I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them.” – Thomas Jefferson
Why Thomas Jefferson quotes? To show that this is nothing new. Corrupt government and propaganda have been around since the beginning. So many of you have become oblivious to the corruption in our government because of the media. Even the Glenn Becks out there, can’t keep their stories straight. Money rules the world, but we can’t be naive and think that welfare and government programs are the answers to our problems. We need a sound monetary policy that does not undermine the value of our dollar. We need to reduce and renovate our government. We need to stop policing the world, and needlessly putting our men and women in harms way. We need to quit allowing fear to justify the loss of our rights.